What RBI markets does Desipoly offer?

Repo rate change markets for each MPC meeting ('Will the RBI cut the repo rate by 25 bps at the June 2026 MPC?'), stance markets ('Will the MPC switch to an accommodative stance?'), and inflation path markets tied to RBI's own projections.

What is the resolution source?

The RBI's official Monetary Policy Statement published on rbi.org.in after each MPC meeting. A human committee reads the statement; disputes escalate to UMA Optimistic Oracle v3.

When does the MPC meet?

The Monetary Policy Committee meets six times a year, on a calendar published in advance by the RBI. Each meeting lasts three days, with the decision announced by the Governor on the final morning.

Guides · Category guide

Bet on RBI policy

The Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) sets the policy repo rate six times a year. These decisions move markets — and they are precisely the kind of event prediction markets price well.

What the MPC is

The six-member Monetary Policy Committee, constituted under the RBI Act, sets the policy repo rate (the rate at which the RBI lends to scheduled banks) with the goal of maintaining CPI inflation at 4% within a ±2% tolerance band.

Meetings are three-day affairs. The decision is announced at 10:00 AM IST on the final day via an official Monetary Policy Statement on rbi.org.in.

The market types

Direction markets. "Will the RBI cut the repo rate at the June 2026 MPC?"
Magnitude markets. "Will the cut be 25 bps or deeper?"
Stance markets. "Will the MPC shift to an 'accommodative' stance?"
Vote-split markets. "Will the decision be unanimous (6-0)?"

Reading monetary policy

What moves RBI decisions, in rough order:

CPI inflation. Headline and core prints in the weeks leading up to the MPC.
Growth outlook. Q-o-Q GDP, IIP, core-sector data.
US Fed path. Dollar strength and FPI flows affect INR and thus policy space.
Oil and the rupee. Both feed into imported inflation.
Food prices. Monsoon, vegetables, cereals — especially volatile headline-CPI drivers.

What pre-policy signals to watch

Bloomberg / Reuters polls of 30+ economists (released a week prior).
OIS (Overnight Indexed Swap) implied rates.
10-year G-Sec yield drift.
Bank CEO commentary in the week before the decision.
Hints from RBI officials in public speeches.

A worked example

A week before the MPC, "Will the RBI cut the repo rate by 25 bps at the June 2026 MPC?" trades at 35¢. The economist consensus is "hold". You think core CPI has cooled more than the market realizes and put $150 USDC into YES at 35¢ — approximately 429 shares.

If the RBI cuts 25 bps: 429 × $1 = $429. Profit $279.
If it holds or cuts a different magnitude: $0. You lose $150.
If a surprise CPI print sends YES to 60¢ before the MPC, you can sell for ~$257.

Resolution — the fine print

Each MPC market specifies the exact outcome. "Cut by 25 bps" means the new policy repo rate equals prior rate minus 0.25%. A 50-bps cut resolves NO on the 25-bps market (the market asked about exactly 25, not "25 or more"). Read criteria carefully.

Why RBI markets work

RBI decisions are binary, scheduled, and extensively covered by professional analysts — perfect ingredients for efficient market pricing. The spread between the prediction-market price and the economist consensus often carries real information.