Who decides when a market resolves YES or NO?

Every Desipoly market names a public source (ECI, RBI, NSE, iplt20.com, Sacnilk, etc.) and a precise resolution criterion. A human resolution committee reads the source and proposes the outcome on-chain via the UMA Optimistic Oracle v3. If nobody disputes within a short window, the market settles automatically.

What happens if someone disputes?

The disputer posts a bond. The question is escalated to UMA's global dispute-resolution process, where UMA token holders vote on the correct answer. UMA's decision is final and binding.

How fast is resolution?

Happy-path resolution is typically within hours of the event. A human committee member proposes the outcome, a short dispute window passes with no challenge, and the market settles. Disputed markets take longer as UMA's process runs.

What if the resolution source is wrong?

Each market explicitly names the authoritative source. If that source itself is in error, the market still resolves against the named source — Desipoly is not in the business of second-guessing official data. Ambiguous markets are rejected at listing rather than traded.

Guides · Mechanics

How markets resolve

Resolution is the most important part of a prediction market. If you can't trust the settlement, the price is meaningless. Here's exactly how Desipoly resolves every market.

The three ingredients

Named public source. ECI, RBI, NSE, iplt20.com, Sacnilk, or similar.
Human committee. Proposes the outcome based on the source.
UMA Optimistic Oracle v3. The on-chain dispute backstop.

Step 1 — The market closes

Each market has a deadline. After the deadline, no new trades go through. Shares are held; settlement is pending.

Step 2 — Committee proposes outcome

A member of the Desipoly resolution committee reads the named source (e.g., the ECI result page for an election) and submits a proposal on-chain through the UMA Optimistic Oracle v3. The proposer posts a bond.

The proposal says, in effect: "For market M, the outcome is YES, based on source URL S. Here's my bond."

Step 3 — Dispute window opens

UMA OOv3 runs a liveness window (typically a few hours) during which anyone in the world can dispute the proposal by posting a counter-bond. In ~99% of cases, nobody disputes — the proposal is correct, the liveness window expires, and the market settles automatically.

Step 4 — If disputed: UMA DVM vote

If someone disputes, the question is escalated to UMA's Data Verification Mechanism (DVM). UMA token holders vote on the correct answer, with economic incentives to vote correctly (Schelling-point game). The result of that vote is final and enforced on-chain.

Whoever was right (proposer or disputer) gets their bond back plus the loser's bond. Whoever was wrong loses their bond. This is the economic backbone that makes optimistic oracles work.

Step 5 — Settlement and redemption

Once resolved, Desipoly's market contract knows whether YES or NO pays. Users with winning shares click "Redeem" in their portfolio; the shares are burned and 1 USDC per share is transferred to their wallet on Polygon. Losing shares are worth 0.

Why this design

Fast when the answer is obvious. Most markets resolve in hours, not days.
Trustless when it matters. Even if Desipoly disappears tomorrow, the UMA dispute process resolves every open market.
Skin in the game. Bond posting aligns incentives. Nobody proposes or disputes frivolously.

What makes a market un-resolvable

Desipoly refuses to list markets where:

The outcome depends on private information nobody can verify.
The resolution source is flaky or hard to access.
The criteria are ambiguous (subjective wording, unspecified thresholds).
The source publishes data that could be gamed.

Every market that goes live has been reviewed against these criteria. If you see a market with unclear resolution criteria, that's a bug — email [email protected].

Why use the Gnosis CTF?

Under the hood, Desipoly uses the Gnosis Conditional Token Framework — the same battle-tested primitive Polymarket and Gnosis's own prediction products use. It handles YES/NO share issuance, splitting and merging positions, and redemption against a resolved condition.

UMA OOv3 provides the outcome; CTF handles the token mechanics. Two well-understood building blocks, composed.