What Bollywood markets does Desipoly offer?

Day-1 India gross, weekend gross, lifetime domestic gross, and worldwide gross markets for major Hindi releases. Also opening-day footfalls and milestone markets like '₹100 crore club'.

What is the resolution source?

Sacnilk.com is the industry-standard trade publication. Every Bollywood market on Desipoly names a specific Sacnilk page (e.g., the film's day-wise collection page). Disputes escalate to UMA Optimistic Oracle v3.

What is the 'lifetime gross' ambiguity?

'Lifetime' is not a fixed date — a film can theoretically re-release and add collections years later. Desipoly markets resolve against a named cut-off date (e.g., 'lifetime gross as reported on Sacnilk on T+60 days from release'). Read each market's criteria closely.

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Bet on Bollywood box office

Bollywood is a data problem wrapped in a drama. Opening-weekend numbers break Friday, shape the week, and define a film's commercial fate. Prediction markets aggregate the opinions of people who actually watch.

Market types

Day-1 India gross. "Will Film X cross ₹40 crore net on Day 1?"
Opening weekend gross. Three-day net collections.
Lifetime domestic gross. Total India collections by a specific cut-off.
Club markets. "Will Film X join the ₹100 crore club?" "Will it cross ₹500 crore worldwide?"
Occupancy markets. Opening-day national occupancy thresholds.

The resolution source: Sacnilk

Sacnilk (sacnilk.com) is the industry-standard trade publication for Indian box-office reporting. Production houses, distributors, and trade analysts all cite it. Every Bollywood market on Desipoly names a specific Sacnilk page as the authoritative source.

Day-1 vs lifetime — the numbers are different

Day-1 gross is typically reported Friday evening / Saturday morning. Lifetime is a slower number. Desipoly writes both types of markets, but the resolution date differs:

Day-1 markets. Resolve within 48 hours of release.
Weekend markets. Resolve on Tuesday after release.
Lifetime markets. Resolve on a pre-specified cut-off date, typically T+45 or T+60 days from release.

The lifetime gross ambiguity

"Lifetime gross" is a fuzzy concept. A film can re-release, get a festival run, or pick up streaming-driven theatrical extensions. To eliminate ambiguity, Desipoly markets always pin a cut-off date. The resolution is "Sacnilk-reported lifetime gross as of [date]" — not "forever".

If you see a market that doesn't specify a cut-off, it's either being drafted or shouldn't be listed. Read the criteria.

Net vs gross

"Net" gross excludes GST and entertainment tax. "Gross" (or worldwide gross) includes them. Sacnilk publishes both. Desipoly markets specify which number is the trigger — always net-India or gross-worldwide, as stated in the criteria.

What moves the price

Trailer views and engagement. Imperfect but informative.
Advance booking numbers. Released by trade analysts a day or two before release.
Critic reviews. Mixed signal — crowd-pleasers can trash critic scores.
Holiday windows. Independence Day, Diwali, Christmas — huge multiplier effects.
Competing releases. Two big Hindi films the same weekend split the audience.

A worked example

A week before release, "Will Film X cross ₹50 crore net on Day 1?" trades at 22¢. Advance booking data released the day before show strong front-loading. YES spikes to 45¢. The film opens to ₹62 crore. YES resolves 1.00, and anyone who bought at 22¢ makes ~4.5x their cost.

Why Bollywood works as a market

Box office is discrete, numeric, and fast. Unlike political markets, you don't wait months for resolution. And unlike pure guessing, there are real data signals (booking data, critic buzz, competing slate) that reward preparation.