How does "Will Bihar have a new CM before 31 December 2026?" resolve?

Any official swearing-in as CM of Bihar of a person other than the incumbent at market creation. Source: eci.gov.in / PIB announcements. Deadline: Thu, 31 Dec 2026 18:29:00 UTC.

What is the current YES price?

YES trades at 61¢ and NO trades at 39¢. Prices represent implied probability and range from 0¢ to 100¢.

What does the market pay out?

Each YES share pays $1 USDC if the market resolves YES, $0 otherwise. NO shares are the inverse. Settlement is in USDC on Polygon.

🗳️ Politics ends in 8mo

Will Bihar have a new CM before 31 December 2026?

Volume $87.3k Liquidity $11.8k 192 traders Closes Thu, 31 Dec 2026 18:29:00 UTC

YES

61¢

39¢

About this market

Resolves YES if a person other than Nitish Kumar is sworn in as Chief Minister of Bihar at any point before 2026-12-31 23:59 IST. Includes caretaker/acting CMs.

Resolution source

eci.gov.in / PIB announcements

Resolution deadline

Thu, 31 Dec 2026 18:29:00 UTC

Criteria: Any official swearing-in as CM of Bihar of a person other than the incumbent at market creation.

Recent activity

live

YES 0x8a…92f1 bought 420 shares @ 61¢

12s ago

NO 0x21…ab03 bought 180 shares @ 39¢

1m ago

YES 0xff…1254 bought 50 shares @ 60¢

3m ago

NO 0xc4…77ae bought 900 shares @ 41¢

4m ago

YES 0x09…1aa3 bought 1240 shares @ 59¢

7m ago

YES 0xa2…ef10 bought 75 shares @ 60¢

12m ago

Top holders

1 0x8a…92f1 YES

12,450 shares

2 0xc4…77ae NO

9,820 shares

3 0x09…1aa3 YES

7,110 shares

4 0xff…1254 YES

5,280 shares

5 0x21…ab03 NO

4,650 shares